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暴力風險與合約選擇:來自近代東北鄉村匪患的證據

暴力風險與合約選擇:來自近代東北鄉村匪患的證據

Live on Zoom 2021年3月4日(星期四) 16:00 香港/北京/新加坡 風險如何影響農業合約的選擇一直是合約理論關注的重要議題,然而當代研究多注重自然風險的影響,而鮮有探討暴力風險的影響。復旦大學經濟學教授李楠及其合著者利用上世紀30年代「滿洲地區農村實態調査」中所收集的農戶微觀數據,考察東北土匪活動對當地鄉村社會租佃合約的影響。除自然災害風險以外,研究發現由土匪搶劫等活動產生的額外暴力風險使農戶更傾向選擇激勵性較低的「分成合約」來分散風險。隨著暴力風險升高,農業生產率會因佃農選擇「分成合約」的比例上升而有所降低。上述結論在控制租佃雙方風險偏好及地區特質等變量後依然成立。於本次量化歷史網上講座中,李楠教授將講解其研究的實証發現如何豐富和擴展農業合約中的風險分擔理論,並為理解暴力對經濟績效影響提供新的微觀機制。

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 Asia Global Institute

 2nd March, 2021

#AsiaGlobalInstitute #HKUBusinessSchool #economichistory #quantitativehistory #webinar

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